Saturday, September 6, 2008

The Incredible Shrinking European Union

It's official: the European Union released a report last week projecting that deaths will outnumber births in its 27 member states by 2015, only seven years from now. While the population in some E.U. nations (including Cyprus, Ireland, Luxembourg, and the United Kingdom) will continue to grow between now and 2060, dramatic declines will be seen in the populations of countries such as Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, and Romania. Migration will continue to increase the E.U. population until 2035, but after that date, the population will begin to decline. By 2060, 30% of Europe's population will be 65 and older, and 12% will be aged 80 and older. "In other words, "there [will] be only two persons of working age for every person aged 65 or more in 2060, compared with four persons to one today."
Particularly in those nations that rely heavily on taxes to fund social expenditures, this population decline could have dramatic impacts on welfare, social security, health care, and public school funding. But of course, I'm most interested in the impact these demographic changes may have on immigration laws. Will "Fortress Europe" become more welcoming to immigrants? What impact might more liberal European immigration policies have on U.S. immigration laws? To be sure, increased immigration alone will not solve the complex problems resulting from the "greying of Europe", but what will happen if the current restrictionist laws remain in place? Stay tuned . . .
Cross-posted at Concurring Opinions

No comments: